Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 245 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Sep 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 02/1716Z from Region 3089 (S23W46). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (03 Sep, 04 Sep, 05 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 512 km/s at 01/2100Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 02/1904Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 02/2030Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 168 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (03 Sep), unsettled to major storm levels on day two (04 Sep) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (05 Sep). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (03 Sep, 04 Sep, 05 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 03 Sep-05 Sep
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Sep 130
Predicted 03 Sep-05 Sep 124/124/120
90 Day Mean 02 Sep 121

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Sep 009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Sep 006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Sep-05 Sep 012/015-021/030-020/025

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Sep-05 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/30/40
Minor Storm 15/40/25
Major-severe storm 01/20/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/10/15
Minor Storm 25/20/30
Major-severe storm 30/65/45