Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 207 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jul 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at 26/1535Z from Region 3060 (N12W89). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 Jul, 28 Jul, 29 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 467 km/s at 26/1810Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 26/1051Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 26/2001Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1229 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (27 Jul, 29 Jul) and quiet levels on day two (28 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 27 Jul-29 Jul
Class M 05/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Jul 099
Predicted 27 Jul-29 Jul 098/098/096
90 Day Mean 26 Jul 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jul 008/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jul 007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jul-29 Jul 007/008-006/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jul-29 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 05/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/25
Major-severe storm 20/20/25
