Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 31 Mar 2004
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2004 Mar 31 2230 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 091 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Mar 2004
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z
to 31/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 582 (N14W09)
produced many B and C-class flares throughout the period. The
sunspot area decreased slightly today while the beta-gamma
magnetic structure remained intact. Region 581 (S05W15) produced
a C2 x-ray flare at 30/2308Z that was preceded by a small filament
eruption. Region 587 (S13E37) showed a significant growth in sunspot
area during the past 24 hours although there was no flare activity
noted in this region today. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 582 remains capable of producing
M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high
levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet levels with periods of
unsettled conditions for 1-3 April.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Apr-03 Apr
- Class M 40/40/40
- Class X 05/05/05
- Proton 05/05/05
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 31 Mar 121
- Predicted 01 Apr-03 Apr 120/125/125
- 90 Day Mean 31 Mar 111
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 30 Mar 009/012
- Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Mar 008/008
- Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Apr-03 Apr 005/008-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Apr-03 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 15/15/15
- Minor storm 05/05/05
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 20/20/20
- Minor storm 10/10/10
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
