Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 10 Feb 2004
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2004 Feb 10 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 041 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Feb 2004
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. Regions 551 (S08W41)
and 554 (S10E38) have produced numerous B class flares. No
significant changes were observed to regions on the visible disk.
No new regions were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
Regions 551 and 554 may produce C- and isolated M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with active and minor
storm conditions possible on 12 and 13 November as a coronal hole
high speed solar wind stream moves into geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Feb-13 Feb
- Class M 30/30/30
- Class X 10/10/10
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 10 Feb 117
- Predicted 11 Feb-13 Feb 120/115/115
- 90 Day Mean 10 Feb 121
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 09 Feb 003/008
- Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Feb 005/009
- Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Feb-13 Feb 008/012-012/015-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Feb-13 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 15/20/20
- Minor storm 05/10/10
- Major-severe storm 01/05/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 20/30/30
- Minor storm 10/15/20
- Major-severe storm 05/05/10
