Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 08 Feb 2004
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2004 Feb 08 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 039 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Feb 2004
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z: Solar activity increased to moderate levels in the last
minutes of the period. Region 554 (S08E62) produced an M1/Sf event
at 08/2051Z. Multiple B and C-class flares where attributed to this
region during the period. This region has recently rotated onto the
visible solar disk and may have a weak gamma magnetic structure in
the trailing portion of the sunspot cluster, currently analyzed as a
beta group. Region 551 (S06W14) continues to show steady growth in
penumbral coverage and continued counter-clockwise rotation of the
intermediate sunspots was evidenced once again during the interval.
A single lesser B-class flare was the extent of flare activity in
this region today. Spotless active Region 553 (S04W38) managed to
produce a C1 x-ray flare at 08/0452Z. No new regions were numbered
today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Regions 551 and 554 have the potential to
produce isolated M-class flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high
levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active
conditions may be possible in the nighttime sectors throughout the
period.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Feb-11 Feb
- Class M 50/50/50
- Class X 10/10/10
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 08 Feb 116
- Predicted 09 Feb-11 Feb 120/120/115
- 90 Day Mean 08 Feb 121
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 07 Feb 005/011
- Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Feb 005/008
- Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Feb-11 Feb 008/010-008/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Feb-11 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 20/20/20
- Minor storm 05/05/05
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 20/20/20
- Minor storm 10/10/10
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05