Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 30 Jan 2004
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2004 Jan 30 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 030 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jan 2004
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Several small B and C-class
x-ray flares have occurred from an unnumbered region just beyond the
east limb near NE13. No spots are yet visible but enhancements in
GOES SXI images mark the location where the region is expected to
rotate into view. New Region 547 (S09E14) emerged on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
Additional small flares are expected from the new region rotating
around the east limb at NE13.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. Solar
wind information from the NASA ACE spacecraft suggest that the
geomagnetic field is under the influence of a high-speed coronal
hole stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with isolated minor storm
periods.
III. Event Probabilities 31 Jan-02 Feb
- Class M 01/01/01
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 30 Jan 093
- Predicted 31 Jan-02 Feb 095/100/105
- 90 Day Mean 30 Jan 123
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jan 008/010
- Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jan 015/019
- Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Jan-02 Feb 015/020-015/020-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Jan-02 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 30/30/30
- Minor storm 10/10/10
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 50/50/50
- Minor storm 15/15/15
- Major-severe storm 10/10/10
