Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 02 Jan 2004
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2004 Jan 02 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 002 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jan 2004
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Region 536 (S11E63) has
produced several C-class flares during the last twenty-four hours.
This region continues to grow and is currently 770 millionths of
white light coverage.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
An isolated M-class event is possible from Region 536.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high
levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for 03 January. Active to minor
storm conditions are expected for 04-05 January with activity due to
a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Jan-05 Jan
- Class M 30/30/30
- Class X 05/05/05
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 02 Jan 117
- Predicted 03 Jan-05 Jan 120/120/125
- 90 Day Mean 02 Jan 135
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jan 012/027
- Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jan 010/014
- Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jan-05 Jan 010/015-025/030-020/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jan-05 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 25/40/35
- Minor storm 05/20/15
- Major-severe storm 01/10/10
B. High Latitudes
- Active 30/45/45
- Minor storm 10/25/25
- Major-severe storm 05/15/15
