Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 19 Dec 2003
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2003 Dec 19 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 353 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Dec 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Regions 525 (N10E31) and
528 (N09E62) produced several C-class events during the period,
including a C9.3/Sf at 19/0818Z from Region 528. No new regions
were numbered today, but SOHO/EIT imagery indicates that more active
regions lie just beyond the east limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Isolated major flares are possible from Regions 525
and 528.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet. The greater than 2MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled through the period. Isolated
chance of active to minor storm conditions are possible 20-21
December, as the geomagnetic field comes under the influence of high
speed solar wind from a coronal hole moving into geoeffective
position.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Dec-22 Dec
- Class M 25/25/25
- Class X 05/05/05
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 19 Dec 123
- Predicted 20 Dec-22 Dec 135/135/140
- 90 Day Mean 19 Dec 137
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 18 Dec 002/008
- Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Dec 008/008
- Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Dec-22 Dec 015/020-010/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Dec-22 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 40/35/30
- Minor storm 20/20/10
- Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 40/45/40
- Minor storm 30/25/20
- Major-severe storm 10/10/08
