Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 14 Dec 2003
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2003 Dec 14 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 348 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Dec 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels. Only three
regions are on the solar disk. None have significant potential for
solar activity.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels. A
coronal hole is progressing beyond geoeffective range. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels with a slight chance
for minor storm until the end of the 15th, falling off to quiet to
unsettled levels for the 16th and 17th.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Dec-17 Dec
- Class M 05/05/05
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 14 Dec 092
- Predicted 15 Dec-17 Dec 090/090/095
- 90 Day Mean 14 Dec 135
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 13 Dec 020/028
- Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Dec 020/020
- Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Dec-17 Dec 015/020-010/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Dec-17 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 35/35/35
- Minor storm 15/10/10
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 25/30/30
- Minor storm 20/20/20
- Major-severe storm 10/05/05
