Testimony of Dr. Ernest Hildner, NOAA, at House Science Committee Space Weather Hearing (part 1)

WRITTEN STATEMENT
BY
DR. ERNEST HILDNER
DIRECTOR, SPACE ENVIRONMENT CENTER
MANAGER, SPACE WEATHER PROGRAM
NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
ON

WHAT IS SPACE WEATHER, AND WHO SHOULD FORECAST IT

BEFORE
THE SUBCOMMITTEE ON ENVIRONMENT, TECHNOLOGY, AND STANDARDS
COMMITTEE ON SCIENCE
U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

OCTOBER 30, 2003

Thank you, Mr. Chairman and Members of the Subcommittee, for the opportunity to testify before you regarding the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) activities at the Space Environment Center (SEC). I am Ernest Hildner, Director of the SEC and responsible for day-to-day management and long-term planning of the Center. Space, from the Sun to Earth’s upper atmosphere, is a strategic and economic frontier. This unique environment influences a multitude of human activities, and its understanding presents numerous scientific challenges. NOAA’s SEC has a central role in conducting and coordinating research to understand the space environment to improve space weather services, and in providing critical operational space weather services for NOAA and the Nation. SEC strives to understand and predict the state of the space environment by accumulating data, running models, applying forecaster insight, conducting applied research, and utilizing research and data obtained externally to make operational forecasts of the space environment. Today I will provide an overview of space weather, of SEC and the services it provides, the budgetary and science challenges facing SEC, how SEC collaborates with other agencies, and the value of space weather forecasting and research. I am pleased to have the chance to discuss these topics today.

SPACE WEATHER

“Space weather” refers to conditions on the sun and in the solar wind, magnetosphere, ionosphere, and thermosphere that can influence the performance and reliability of space-borne and ground-based technological systems and can endanger human life or health. Adverse conditions in the space environment can cause disruption of satellite operations, communications, navigation, and electric power distribution grids, leading to a variety of socioeconomic losses. National Space Weather Program Strategic Plan, FCM-P30-1995.

The Earth lies 150 million kilometers, or 93 million miles, from the Sun, but it is immersed in the extended solar atmosphere. Our magnetic field resists the continual outflow of ionized gas from the Sun, protecting us here at the surface. However, the Earth and its field represent an obstacle to the solar outflow. As a result, the geomagnetic field is compressed on the sunward side of Earth and drawn out away from the Sun to make a comet-shaped cavity. As shown in the artist’s sketch below, the size of the boundary between Earth’s dominion and the Sun’s varies with the pressure exerted by the Sun’s outflow.

Space weather storms are spawned by a variety of changes in solar outputs. First, the light from the Sun, at wavelengths both longer and shorter than the visible, can brighten abruptly. This light travels to Earth and affects the near-Earth environment just as we discern that a solar event has occurred. The photons from a solar flare produce a radio blackout, at some frequencies, by changing the character of the dayside ionosphere and upsetting the delicate balance between the Sun’s otherwise nearly constant output and Earth’s ability to receive and ingest it.

Solar energetic particles comprise a second type of solar emission. These particles, predominantly protons, the nuclei of hydrogen atoms, are accelerated in coronal mass ejections and solar flares. They travel from the Sun slower than the speed of light, arriving near Earth as soon as tens of minutes after the solar eruption, the more energetic particles usually arriving first. The transit from sun to Earth may be slowed if the intervening magnetic fields do not provide easy Sun-to-Earth connection; then the particles’ arrival may be delayed many tens of hours. A major rise in energetic particle flux is commonly referred to as a radiation storm.

A third type of solar emission that has strong space weather impacts is magnetized plasma. When the continually evolving solar magnetic fields abruptly restructure themselves over a broad area, a portion of the outer solar atmosphere, the corona, can be ejected violently into space. These coronal mass ejections, clouds of ionized gas (solar plasma) and their embedded magnetic fields, fly away from the Sun at 400 – 1000 kilometers/second (1 – 2 million miles per hour). If Earth happens to be in the way, when the cloud strikes Earth’s magnetic field 2 to 4 days later, then our geomagnetic field is compressed and may be eroded, resulting in a geomagnetic storm.

The following diagram depicts the times scales associated with these three types of space weather events.

The diagram illustrates the lead time between the occurrence of the parent event at the Sun and the terrestrial response; as well as the watches, warnings, and alerts issued by SEC. Thus, space weather has several kinds of storms much as meteorological weather has storms as different as tornadoes, blizzards, and hurricanes. A particular type of space weather storm has significant impacts on particular technologies so some customers are impacted by one type of space weather storm but not by another.

For example, strong x-ray bursts have a serious impact on high frequency (HF) communications on the dayside of Earth. ARINC, a provider of air traffic communications capabilities to commercial airline flights over the North Atlantic, ensures the safety of the movements of airplanes in flight with communications to the cockpit. They need to know when the HF communications are being affected due to natural conditions (space weather) or due to some equipment failure, and advise aircraft of appropriate frequencies to use. The United States Coast Guard is alerted by SEC staff during these same types of episodes as its LORAN navigation system will be unable to provide the required accuracy to its users during solar flare events. LORAN is intentionally made unavailable during these disturbed space weather conditions.

During bursts of solar energetic particles, the second type of space weather storm, the potential for biological damage due to elevated solar radiation increases. The NASA Space Radiation Analysis Group is responsible for assuring that humans in space not receive anything beyond the lowest reasonable radiation dose. They will advise the Flight Surgeon at NASA’s Johnson Space Center to alter the activity plan for the crew if those activities involve leaving the space craft (for an extra-vehicular activity, or EVA), or suggest moving the crew to the most highly protected area of the Space Shuttle or International Space Station during the space weather radiation storm. NASA requires forecasts and specifications of radiation that affects both humans and equipment in space.

Another witness will discuss the effects of radiation storms and communications degradation on the airline industry.

Satellites in orbit and during the launch are at risk from radiation storms, and I am pleased to see that you have a witness to discuss those effects of space weather as well.

The third type of space weather storm, caused by the interaction between the onrushing magnetized plasma from the Sun and Earth’s own magnetic field, is particularly menacing. This geomagnetic storm can be thought of as the space weather version of a strong hurricane, as it has very widespread impacts across a large number of systems and users. Somewhat like hurricane clouds are monitored from satellites, this plasma cloud can be seen as it leaves the Sun and it is probed internally as it is about to make “Earthfall”.

When a coronal mass ejection occurs, forecasters at SEC analyze the direction of the ejectum to determine whether it is Earthbound and estimate the kinetic energy associated with the event. As it takes a few days for the cloud to reach Earth, there is time for users to take preventive or mitigating action. One of today’s witnesses will discuss the effects of geomagnetic storms on the electric power grid.

SEC has been called upon to help investigate possible environmental causes for disasters. The recently active Shuttle Columbia Accident Investigation Board asked for testimony to rule out the possibility that a radiation storm could have affected the Shuttle’s computers during reentry. More recently, there were inquiries whether the electrical blackout of the Northeast on August 14, 2003, was caused by a space weather geomagnetic storm. SEC saw no evidence that it was. Ironically, however, as the grid was being brought back up to capacity, on August 18 there was a strong geomagnetic storm that hampered the ability of the operators to return to normalcy.

Another system impacted during geomagnetic storms is the Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS) of the Federal Aviation Administration, designed for aircraft navigation en route. The WAAS technology relies on the use of the Global Positioning System (GPS), and GPS accuracy is adversely affected during geomagnetic storms. In the current solar cycle, the space weather storm of July 14-15, 2000, was by many measures the most serious. During this storm, the “Test-bed” WAAS was unable to determine the position of a receiver on an airplane to the accuracy required; as a result of the storm, slight changes were made to the WAAS model based on data received during that solar activity.

The Space Weather Operations group at SEC issues alerts, warnings, and watches of space weather storms, on a 24/7 basis. Warnings of all three types of space weather storms are issued when there is high probability of occurrence. Warnings for radiation and magnetic storms are aided by the ability to detect the incoming solar wind from a satellite one million miles upstream, the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE). This sentinel allows for a few minutes advance notice of radiation storms, and up to one hour lead time for magnetic storms. However, it does not offer any benefit for radio blackouts.

Space weather events such as radio blackouts, radiation storms, and geomagnetic have affected various technologies and systems in sometimes spectacular ways. During the last solar cycle, a geomagnetic storm caused the Hydro-Quebec power grid to black out on March 13, 1989, leaving six million without electricity for nine hours. The big storms of March 1989 and July 2000 sent engineers back to their drawing boards hoping to design better systems to lessen the damage. A space weather radiation storm in August 1972 could have been even more damaging, possibly lethal. This event occurred between the lunar flights of Apollo 16 (April 16, 1972) and Apollo 17 (December 16, 1972). Biologists have calculated that the radiation received by astronauts, had they been on the moon at the time of the storm, would have caused a quick death. Good luck averted a disaster.

The frequency of occurrence of space weather storms, and the possible consequences of the storms, are indicated in the NOAA Space Weather Scales document attached to this testimony and available on SEC’s website at http://www.sec.noaa.gov.

SEC OVERVIEW

What we now call “space weather” began to affect widely used technology during World War II, disrupting the newly developed communication and radar systems. After the War, the Central Radio Propagation Laboratory was set up in the National Bureau of Standards in Boulder, Colorado, coalescing Federal activities dealing with space weather. A portion of this unit, by then named the Environmental and Solar Data Service, was folded into the Environmental Science Services Agency (ESSA) when it was formed in the 1960s. Daily forecasting of the space environment for the public commenced in 1965. ESSA was rolled into NOAA when NOAA was formed in 1970, and the SEC is the result.

NOAA’s mission “To understand and predict changes in the Earth’s environment…to meet our Nation’ s economic, social, and environmental needs” includes space weather. Just as NOAA’s tropospheric weather service does for its customers, NOAA’s space weather service monitors and predicts conditions in the space environment for its customers. SEC carries out its role as the Nation’s official source of space weather alerts and warnings under various legislative mandates, statutory authorities, and Department of Commerce Reorganization Plans that gave the authority to monitor and predict the space environment to NOAA. Currently, SEC is both a research laboratory in NOAA’s Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR) and one of the National Weather Service’s (NWS) National Centers for Environmental Prediction. SEC’s products are distributed via email, its Web site, the NWS Family of Services, time and frequency standards radio stations WWV and WWVH, and the NOAA Weather Wire; pager service to notify customers when SEC issues an alert is available from a commercial provider.

SEC is also a member of the International Space Environment Service (ISES), which has 12 Regional Warning Centers around the world to take observations and provide services of regional interest. Daily, the regional centers share their data and tentative predictions with SEC, which synthesizes the information and, as the World Warning Agency, issues the global forecast of space weather conditions. ISES traces its parentage to the International Council of Scientific Unions; its Regional Warning Centers are funded by their host countries.

NOAA’s space weather service is analogous to its tropospheric weather service, and both antedate the formation of NOAA itself. Both serve civilian government, public, and industrial users, and both have links to military and academic partners. For both services, NOAA was deemed to be the proper home. Using NOAA’s and others’ sensors, the SEC continually monitors and daily forecasts Earth’s space environment and provides accurate, reliable, and useful solar-terrestrial information to their customers. SEC acquires, interprets, synthesizes, and disseminates monitoring information to serve the Nation’s need to reduce adverse effects of solar-terrestrial disturbances on human activities. It prepares and disseminates forecasts and alerts of conditions in the space environment. SEC conducts research into phenomena affecting the Sun-Earth environment including the emission of electromagnetic radiation and particles from the Sun, the transmission of solar energy to Earth via solar wind, and the interactions between the solar wind and Earth’s magnetic field, ionosphere, and atmosphere. It conducts research and development in solar-terrestrial physics and in techniques to improve monitoring and forecasting, prepares high-quality data for national archives, and uses its expertise to advise and educate those affected by variations in the space environment. When events warrant, watches, warnings, and alerts are issued for the use of operators whose systems may be adversely affected by space weather storms. These user groups are private, commercial, government, and military operators, concerned with electric power distribution, high-frequency radio communications, satellite operations, astronaut protection, radio navigation, and national security.

The SEC, however, faces a number of challenges to meeting the needs of the user groups mentioned above. These challenges include budgetary challenges, particularly the potential of cuts in the President’s budget request for SEC in the FY 2004 appropriations bills; and, scientific challenges.

The President requested $8.291 million total for the SEC in FY 2004. However, the House Appropriations Committee has recommended FY04 funding of $5.298 million for SEC, while the Senate Appropriations Committee zeroed out funding for SEC. If the House Committee level of $5.298 is enacted, there will be dramatic consequences for SEC and the vital services that it provides. The House mark of $5.298 million would support staffing of only about 25 FTEs, down from the 53 FTEs requested in the President’s budget. In the short term, most non-labor SEC costs are fixed.

Downsizing to the House Appropriation’s Committee’s recommended level, NOAA and SEC would attempt to preserve, as much as possible, the nation’s investment in the current space weather monitoring network by continuing to acquire, ingest, process, disseminate, and provide to archives the copious data with breaking the continuity of 30 years worth of measurements. This activity currently consumes about half of SEC’s budget. Therefore, the shortfall created by an appropriation of $5.3 million would be borne either by research and development or by operations. NOAA and SEC will be forced to choose between the least undesirable of two options described below. In either case, SEC’s data handling capability for ingest, processing, and archive would degrade. Eighty percent of Air Force alerts are driven by data provided only by SEC. The space weather data ingest and distribution network, identified by Homeland Security as a part of the Nation’s Critical Infrastructure, would face imminent failure. For example, under each option, irreplaceable coverage gaps in real-time Solar Wind data would result, as satellite tracking shrinks, reducing alerts of geomagnetic storms affecting communications and GPS accuracy.

In the first reduction option, NOAA would eliminate SEC’s research and development while continuing operational services with no improvement. Verification of and technique development to use Solar X-ray Imager (SXI) data would cease. When operational, the SXI takes images of the sun once a minute, providing additional data needed to more accurately forecast and alert users to space weather events. The Global Assimilation of Ionospheric Measurements (GAIM) model currently being developed would not become available to civilian users. This model will provide global specification and forecasts of the ionosphere in 3-dimensions, where presently only in-situ measurements and climatological models are available. NOAA participation in the National Space Weather Program will cease. SEC will not be able to provide improvements to products and models supporting airlines, power companies, navigation, and other critical services. NOAA will be unable to transition into operations the physics based models developed at national centers and universities by NSF, NASA, and DOD- supported scientists. In addition, SEC’s website, the primary customer interface for the distribution of space weather data and information will not be improved and recovery from failure will be difficult.