Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 11 Oct 2003

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2003 Oct 11 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 284 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Oct 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. No significant
changes were observed in any active region, and no new regions were
numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels. Region 471 (S07W70) may produce C-class
flares.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one, with an
increase to active and isolated minor storm conditions possible on
days two and three due to the effects of a coronal hole high speed
solar wind stream.

III. Event Probabilities 12 Oct-14 Oct

• Class M 05/05/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 11 Oct 106
• Predicted 12 Oct-14 Oct 100/100/105
• 90 Day Mean 11 Oct 118

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 10 Oct 004/005
• Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Oct 005/008
• Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Oct-14 Oct 005/010-010/015-015/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Oct-14 Oct

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 20/30/40
• Minor storm 05/10/15
• Major-severe storm 01/05/10

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/25/30
• Minor storm 15/25/25
• Major-severe storm 05/10/15