Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 07 Oct 2003
SDF Number 280 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Oct 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z: Solar activity increased to low levels today. Region
471 (S08W18) produced the largest flare of the period, a C1.8 x-ray
event that occurred at 07/1743 UTC, along with numerous lesser
B-class flares. This region continues to show a gamma structure
near the central portion of the spot cluster. A slight increase in
penumbral coverage was noted today. No new regions were numbered
today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Activity is expected to be at low
levels. Region 471 remains capable of producing an isolated M-class
flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. A
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream is responsible for the
elevated conditions.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to active conditions as the high speed
stream begins to wane on the first day of the period. Days two and
three should see predominantly quiet to unsettled conditions.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Oct-10 Oct
- Class M 20/20/20
- Class X 05/05/05
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 07 Oct 112
- Predicted 08 Oct-10 Oct 110/110/105
- 90 Day Mean 07 Oct 119
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 06 Oct 007/010
- Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Oct 012/015
- Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Oct-10 Oct 010/012-008/010-006/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Oct-10 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 25/15/15
- Minor storm 05/01/01
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 25/20/20
- Minor storm 10/05/05
- Major-severe storm 05/01/01
