Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 08 Apr 2003
SDF Number 098 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Apr 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. The largest
event was a B7 flare at 08/0520Z. Region 330 (N07E10) continues a
gradual growth phase and has developed a beta-gamma magnetic
configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels. Regions 325(N14W77) and 330 have C-class
potential.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. A CME shock
from the M1 event on 04 April arrived early today with a 33 nT
sudden impulse at 08/0115Z recorded on the Boulder magnetometer. Bz
reached values near minus 10 nT and solar wind velocity reached peak
values near 500 km/s. Unsettled to active levels were observed at
mid latitudes and an isolated minor storm condition on the planetary
index.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels. Coronal hole high speed
stream effects are expected on day two and day three of the period.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Apr-11 Apr
- Class M 15/10/10
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 08 Apr 112
- Predicted 09 Apr-11 Apr 105/100/095
- 90 Day Mean 08 Apr 133
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 07 Apr 004/006
- Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Apr 015/023
- Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Apr-11 Apr 012/015-020/020-020/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Apr-11 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 20/35/35
- Minor storm 05/15/15
- Major-severe storm 01/05/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 25/40/40
- Minor storm 10/15/15
- Major-severe storm 01/05/05
