Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 21 Mar 2003
SDF Number 080 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Mar 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z
to 21/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Two C class flares were
produced by Region 314 (S13W94) as it crossed the west limb. A 13
degree filament near N12E59 disappeared at about 0930 UTC, followed
by a narrow CME on the northeast limb. Another filament erupted
near S24E12 at 0948 UTC. Solar X-ray images indicate a new solar
active region near S14 behind the east limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
Geomagnetic activity has ranged from quiet to minor storm levels.
High speed solar wind and strong interplanetary magnetic field
conditions led to minor storm activity from 0000 to 1200 UTC.
Activity decreased to active levels from 1200 to 1500 UTC, and
unsettled thereafter. Greater than 2 MeV electron flux levels were
high during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be unsettled with isolated active periods during the
next 24 hours due to persistence. Conditions should decline to
mostly unsettled during the second and third days.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Mar-24 Mar
- Class M 10/05/01
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 21 Mar 091
- Predicted 22 Mar-24 Mar 095/095/100
- 90 Day Mean 21 Mar 134
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 20 Mar 012/021
- Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Mar 028/025
- Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Mar-24 Mar 015/015-012/010-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Mar-24 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 25/20/15
- Minor storm 10/10/05
- Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 35/30/25
- Minor storm 15/10/08
- Major-severe storm 10/05/05
