Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 17 Jan 2003
SDF Number 017 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jan 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. A small, four degree
filament near S03W04 disappeared sometime between 16/2338 UTC and
17/1452 UTC. Region 259 (N09E26) showed moderate growth but could
only muster a B-class subflare. The remainder of the solar disk was
quiet and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next three days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Real-time
solar wind data indicated a solar sector boundary crossing at about
1200 UTC on 17 January.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be generally unsettled for the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Jan-20 Jan
- Class M 20/20/20
- Class X 05/05/05
- Proton 05/05/05
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 17 Jan 142
- Predicted 18 Jan-20 Jan 135/135/125
- 90 Day Mean 17 Jan 162
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jan 004/007
- Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jan 010/010
- Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jan-20 Jan 010/012-010/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jan-20 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 20/20/20
- Minor storm 10/10/10
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 25/25/25
- Minor storm 10/10/10
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05