Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 12 Dec 2002

 
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 346 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Dec 2002

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. The largest flare of the past
day was a C8 at 12/1239 UTC. The flare occurred shortly after a
long-duration C5 flare which peaked at 12/1143 UTC, while the x-ray
level was still elevated above background. Optical flare reports
were not received for either flare. Region 220 (S12E07) continues to
slowly decay. New Regions 223 (N23E71) and 224 (S16E70) rotated into
view.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
A small M-class flare is still a possibility in Region 220, or
perhaps in one of the new regions on the east limb (223 or 224).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.

III.  Event Probabilities 13 Dec-15 Dec
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Dec 153
Predicted   13 Dec-15 Dec  155/160/165
90 Day Mean        12 Dec 165

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Dec  005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Dec  005/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Dec-15 Dec  005/010-005/010-005/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Dec-15 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01