Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 9 Dec 2002

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 343 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Dec 2002

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  A few minor C-class
flares were observed today.  The largest event of the period was a
C2.5/Sf flare with an associated eruptive prominence on the east
limb from newly numbered Region 220 (S12E47).  Available data
suggests that there may have been some interaction from Region 218
(S20E55) during this event.  Region 214 (N13W83) has begun to
quietly exit the west limb.  Regions 219 (S05W25) and 221 (N22E61)
were also assigned today.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
at low levels.  C-class activity continues to be likely from Region
220.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.  The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit briefly reached
moderate levels today.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the
forecast period.

III.  Event Probabilities 10 Dec-12 Dec
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Dec 156
Predicted   10 Dec-12 Dec  160/160/165
90 Day Mean        09 Dec 167

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Dec  008/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Dec  006/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Dec-12 Dec  006/010-006/010-006/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Dec-12 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01