Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 1 Dec 2002
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 335 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Dec 2002 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours. Today's activity was characterized by occasional C-class subflares. The largest of these was a C5/Sf at 1528 UTC from Region 208 (N10E49). Region 208 exhibited the brightest plage of the five spotted groups on the disk, and it has some mixed magnetic polarities within an overall bipolar structure. Region 207 (S19E20) continues to be the largest region on the disk but was quiet and stable. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be mostly low. There is a slight chance, however, for an isolated M-class event over the next three days from Regions 207 and 208. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels during the past 24 hours. The high speed solar wind with weakly negative Bz continues in progress. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes reached high levels today. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic activity is expected to persist at unsettled to active levels over the next two days. A decrease to mostly unsettled levels is expected by the third day. III. Event Probabilities 02 Dec-04 Dec Class M 30/30/30 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 01 Dec 150 Predicted 02 Dec-04 Dec 155/160/165 90 Day Mean 01 Dec 170 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 30 Nov 014/016 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Dec 014/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Dec-04 Dec 012/020-012/020-010/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Dec-04 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/25/20 Minor storm 15/15/10 Major-severe storm 05/05/05 B. High Latitudes Active 30/30/30 Minor storm 20/20/15 Major-severe storm 10/10/05
