Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 24 Nov 2002

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2002 Nov 24 2200 UTC 



Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 328 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Nov 2002

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  Region 198 (S18W36)
produced a long duration C1/Sf event at 24/1809 UTC.  This region
remains mostly unchanged and continues to maintain its beta-gamma
magnetic configuration.  A new region was numbered today as Region
202 (N14E66).

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low. 
Region 198 has the potential to produce an isolated M-class event.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels.  The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosychronous orbit reached high levels
today.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.

III.  Event Probabilities 25 Nov-27 Nov
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Nov 146
Predicted   25 Nov-27 Nov  150/155/160
90 Day Mean        24 Nov 172

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Nov  010/019
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Nov  018/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Nov-27 Nov  010/012-010/012-008/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Nov-27 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05