Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 22 Nov 2002

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 326 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Nov 2002

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  Region 198 (S18W12)
produced the largest flare of the period, a C3.4/Sf flare occurring
at 22/1542 UTC.  Region has shown decay this period as penumbral
coverage has decreased and gamma portion of the magnetic field has
become less discernable, although it is still intact.  Region 201
(S16W22) showed some growth today adding several umbra to group's
total spot count.  No new spot groups were numbered today.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.  Region 198 has the potential to produce M-class flare
activity.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels.  The
transequatorial coronal hole in the western solar hemisphere
continues to elevate the high speed solar wind (today's approximate
average speed of 625 km/s).  The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosychronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels.  Isolated minor storm
conditions (mostly at high latitudes) are possible through day one
as the magnetosphere continues to be under the influence of the high
speed solar wind.  Days two and three should return to quiet to
unsettled conditions as the high speed stream wanes.  The greater
the 2 MeV electron flux at GOES should reach daily moderate to high
levels throughout the forecast period.

III.  Event Probabilities 23 Nov-25 Nov
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Nov 149
Predicted   23 Nov-25 Nov  150/155/165
90 Day Mean        22 Nov 173

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Nov  022/050
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Nov  020/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Nov-25 Nov  015/015-010/010-010/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Nov-25 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/20
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/20/20
Minor storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01