Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 19 Nov 2002
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 323 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Nov 2002
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. The largest event
was an optically uncorrelated C4 flare at 19/0737 UTC. Region 191
(S18W68) continues a gradual decay in penumbral coverage and spot
count. Region 198 (S18E28) has shown a slight decrease in penumbral
coverage but an increase in spot count. The leader spot of Region
198 continues to show magnetic complexity that could develop into a
delta magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 191 and Region 198 have M-class potential.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Coronal hole effects are
expected on day three of the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Nov-22 Nov
Class M 55/55/55
Class X 10/10/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Nov 168
Predicted 20 Nov-22 Nov 165/160/155
90 Day Mean 19 Nov 175
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Nov 011/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Nov 010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Nov-22 Nov 008/012-008/012-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Nov-22 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/25
Minor storm 05/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/25/30
Minor storm 05/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01