Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 16 Nov 2002

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2002 Nov 16 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 320 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Nov 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Region 191 (S18W28) produced a
C8/Sf flare at 16/1359 UTC.  Region 191 remains the most complex
region on the disk with a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration
and a slight increase in penumbral coverage.  Region 192 (N12W61)
has also shown some increase in penumbral coverage but only produced
a minor C5 flare and a number of sub flares.  Region 195 (S16E41)
simplified to a beta-gamma magnetic configuration but some polarity
mixing is evident in the trailing spots.  SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery
indicated a faint full halo CME, first appearing in the C2 field of
view at 16/0712 UTC.  The source of this CME may be a C1.9 flare
from Region 191 at 16/0636 UTC.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  Region 191, Region 192 and Region 195 have the
potential for M-class activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to isolated active conditions.  Coronal hole
effects are expected during the period.
III.  Event Probabilities 17 Nov-19 Nov
Class M    65/65/65
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Nov 199
Predicted   17 Nov-19 Nov  200/195/185
90 Day Mean        16 Nov 171
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Nov  008/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Nov  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Nov-19 Nov  015/020-015/015-012/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Nov-19 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/20
Minor storm           15/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           15/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/01