Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 13 Nov 2002

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 317 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Nov 2002

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z:  Solar activity fell to low levels for the period.  The
largest event was a long duration C3.2 x-ray enhancement, observed
during 13/0341-0552 UTC without a correlated optical report.  Some
episodes of lesser C-class flare activity were produced by Region
191 (S18E12) later in the period.  This region has continued to
exhibit a trend of increasing size and spot count and moderate
magnetic complexity.  Region 180 (S11W94) produced some bright loops
visible in H-alpha early in the period, but was mostly quiescent as
it transited the west limb today.  New Regions 194 (S16E43) and 195
(S15E78) were numbered today.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate during the next three days.  Region 191 appears to be a
likely source of M-class activity for the forecast period.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was predominantly unsettled, with some isolated
quiet and active periods.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mainly unsettled through day one of the forecast
period.  A trend toward more active conditions, with isolated minor
storm conditions possible, is expected by day three of the forecast
period due to the anticipated onset of coronal hole high speed
stream effects.

III.  Event Probabilities 14 Nov-16 Nov
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Nov 182
Predicted   14 Nov-16 Nov  175/175/175
90 Day Mean        13 Nov 178

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Nov  009/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Nov  011/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Nov-16 Nov  010/012-012/015-015/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Nov-16 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/25/35
Minor storm           10/10/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/35/45
Minor storm           15/15/20
Major-severe storm    05/05/10