Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 5 Nov 2002

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 309 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Nov 2002

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  Region 177 (N16W09) 
produced the two largest flares during the period, a C7.5/Sf event
occurred at 05/1257 UTC and a slightly smaller C6.4/Sn flare maximum
was recorded at 05/1610 UTC.  Magnetic analysis indicates slight
growth in complexity while the average white-light area is now at
390 millionths with 17 spots.  Region 180 (S10E17) only managed to
produce minor C-class flares today.  Even so, the magnetic structure
to this region has shown significant growth during the period with
the dominant lead spot exhibiting a distinct delta complex.  New
Region 186 (N20E02) was numbered today.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels.  Both Regions 177 and 180 have M-class flare
potential.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels.  The Bz
component of the interplanetary magnetic field remained mostly
southward today.  The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the past 24 hours.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels into the first day of
the period.  The elevated solar wind speeds in response to a
geoeffective high speed coronal hole stream should begin to diminish
by the end of day one, returning to predominantly quiet to unsettled
conditions on days two and three.  The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit should reach moderate to high levels
again tomorrow, 06 November.

III.  Event Probabilities 06 Nov-08 Nov
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Nov 183
Predicted   06 Nov-08 Nov  180/185/180
90 Day Mean        05 Nov 177

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Nov  011/021
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Nov  015/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Nov-08 Nov  012/015-010/010-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Nov-08 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/20
Minor storm           20/15/10
Major-severe storm    10/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/30/25
Minor storm           25/15/15
Major-severe storm    15/05/05