Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 4 Nov 2002

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 308 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Nov 2002

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  Region 180 (S10E30)
produced the largest flare of the period, an impulsive C4.4/Sf flare
at 04/1823 UTC.  This region has more than doubled in white-light
penumbral coverage since yesterday and produced the vast majority of
the reported flare activity today.  A gamma magnetic structure
remains evident.  Region 177 (N16E05) has shown slight decay today
although it remains a beta-gamma magnetic group.  The largest event
seen today from this region was a C3.7/Sf flare that occurred at
04/0330 UTC.  No new regions were numbered today.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels.  Regions 177 and 180 exhibit the potential
for M-class flare production.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels.  The Bz
component of the interplanetary magnetic field was mostly southward
and the solar wind speed was elevated throughout the period in
response to a geoeffective high speed coronal hole stream.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels with occasional minor
to major storm levels mostly at high latitudes through day two.
Mostly unsettled conditions with isolated active periods are
expected on day three.

III.  Event Probabilities 05 Nov-07 Nov
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Nov 177
Predicted   05 Nov-07 Nov  175/175/180
90 Day Mean        04 Nov 176

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Nov  015/027
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Nov  018/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Nov-07 Nov  012/015-010/012-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Nov-07 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/30
Minor storm           20/20/10
Major-severe storm    10/10/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                45/35/35
Minor storm           30/25/20
Major-severe storm    20/15/10