Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 31 Oct 2002

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 304 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Oct 2002

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  30/2100Z
to 31/2100Z:  Solar activity has been high.  An X1 optically
uncorrelated event occurred at 31/1652 UTC.  The SOHO/LASCO EIT
images indicates two possible source regions, Region 162 (N26W88)
and a region beyond the SE limb.  A new region was numbered today as
Region 178 (N00W15).

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  Region 162 and 175 (N16E29) are both capable of
producing an M-class event.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has ranged from quiet to active conditions. 
The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes reached high levels during
the past 24 hours.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for 1-2 November.  Unsettled to
active conditions are possible for 3 November due to a coronal hole
passage.

III.  Event Probabilities 01 Nov-03 Nov
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           31 Oct 170
Predicted   01 Nov-03 Nov  170/175/175
90 Day Mean        31 Oct 175

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Oct  011/019
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Oct  015/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Nov-03 Nov  010/012-010/012-015/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Nov-03 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/35
Minor storm           10/10/20
Major-severe storm    05/05/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/35/40
Minor storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    10/10/10