Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 30 Oct 2002

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 303 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Oct 2002

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z:  Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours.
Today's activity was characterized by occasional C-class subflares.
Most of the flare activity was from Region 162 (N25W82). Additional
contributions came from Region 175 (N16E44) which showed steady
growth during the past 24 hours. A 16 degree filament near S02W30
erupted between 29/2224 UTC and 30/0048 UTC. The eruption was
associated with a narrow CME from the southwest limb.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate during the next three days. The most likely sources for
M-class flares are Regions 162 and 175.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled, except for an
interval of active to minor storm conditions from 0600-1200 UTC. The
greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes reached high levels during the
past 24 hours.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled during the next three days.

III.  Event Probabilities 31 Oct-02 Nov
Class M    45/45/45
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Oct 168
Predicted   31 Oct-02 Nov  170/170/175
90 Day Mean        30 Oct 175

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Oct  010/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Oct  014/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Oct-02 Nov  010/012-010/012-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Oct-02 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10