Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 27 Oct 2002

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 300 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Oct 2002

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  26/2100Z
to 27/2100Z:  Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours.
Today's activity consisted of occasional low-level C-class flares,
all from Region 162 (N26W43). Region 162 showed emergence of new
flux in the northwest portion of the trailing spots, leading to the
formation of a new delta configuration. A large, southern polar
crown filament lifted of the disk around 0900 UTC on the 27th and
was observed as a small CME in the LASCO C3 field of view.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate during the next three days. There is a fair chance for
an isolated M-class event from Region 162. The newly formed delta
configuration also poses a slight threat for major flare activity.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active during the past 24
hours. The magnetosphere continues to be under the influence of a
high speed solar wind stream with persistently negative orientation
of the interplanetary magnetic field component Bz. The greater the 2
MeV electron fluxes reached high levels during the past 24 hours.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active during the next 12-24 hours due
to persistent effects of the high speed solar wind stream.
Predominantly unsettled levels are expected for the second and third
days.

III.  Event Probabilities 28 Oct-30 Oct
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Oct 157
Predicted   28 Oct-30 Oct  155/155/155
90 Day Mean        27 Oct 177

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Oct  016/027
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Oct  016/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Oct-30 Oct  015/015-012/012-012/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Oct-30 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/25
Minor storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/25/25
Minor storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    15/10/10