Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 22 Oct 2002
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 295 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Oct 2002 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 162 (N27E22) produced an M1/Sf flare at 22/1535 UTC. Region 162 continues to grow and has developed a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration in the trailing spot. Region 160 (S20W56) has shown a decrease in area coverage and spot count in the past 24 hours. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 162 has M-class potential. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. One period on isolated active conditions was observed at 22/09-12 UTC. Solar wind velocity continues to gradually decrease, ending the period near 450 km/s. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active conditions are possible on day one due to the M1/Type II event on 20 October. III. Event Probabilities 23 Oct-25 Oct Class M 50/50/50 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 22 Oct 169 Predicted 23 Oct-25 Oct 170/170/165 90 Day Mean 22 Oct 181 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 21 Oct 007/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Oct 009/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Oct-25 Oct 012/020-010/015-008/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Oct-25 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/25/20 Minor storm 10/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 30/25/25 Minor storm 15/10/05 Major-severe storm 05/01/01
