Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 21 Oct 2002

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 294 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Oct 2002

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  20/2100Z
to 21/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  The largest event
was an optically uncorrelated C6 flare at 20/2137 UTC on the
southwest limb.  The most likely source is Region 154 (S14W75). 
Region 162 (N11E40) produce a number of minor C-class events.  This
region has shown a possible weak delta magnetic configuration
developing in the intermediate spots.  Region 160 (S22W40) has
exhibited decay in area coverage and spot count.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  Region 162 has M-class potential.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.  Solar wind
speed has continued to gradually decrease, ending the period near
525 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geo-synchronous
orbit reached high levels.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.  A chance of isolated active
conditions are possible on day one and two of the period due to
activity from the M1.8/Type II event on 20 October.

III.  Event Probabilities 22 Oct-24 Oct
Class M    45/40/35
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Oct 183
Predicted   22 Oct-24 Oct  175/175/175
90 Day Mean        21 Oct 181

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Oct  008/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Oct  009/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Oct-24 Oct  010/012-012/020-010/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Oct-24 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           05/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/30/25
Minor storm           10/15/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/01