Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 15 Oct 2002

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 288 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Oct 2002

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z:  Solar activity was at moderate levels.  Region 149
(N14W07) produced the largest event of the period, an M1/1f flare
occurring at 15/1422 UTC.  A filament from central meridian through
the southern hemisphere erupted shortly before this flare and is
believed to have been the trigger for the event.  SOHO/LASCO imagery
depicts an associated CME to the event which does not appear to be
earth directed.  No significant changes were noted today in the spot
group or the magnetic complexity to this region.  Region 140
(S08W52) produced a C1/Sf flare at 15/1326 UTC.  Newly numbered
Region 161 (N06E00) was assigned today.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels.  Region 149 has the potential of producing
low level M-class flares.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels.  A slow, yet
steady, increase in the solar wind speed along with intermittent
periods of southward Bz allowed for the active periods seen today.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at quiet to active levels.  Weak CME passage
effects may occur in response to the solar activity that occurred on
the 14th and may begin on day one and continue into day two of the
forecast period.

III.  Event Probabilities 16 Oct-18 Oct
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Oct 177
Predicted   16 Oct-18 Oct  175/170/165
90 Day Mean        15 Oct 182

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Oct  013/026
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Oct  011/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Oct-18 Oct  015/015-012/012-012/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Oct-18 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/25
Minor storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/30/25
Minor storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01