Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 25 Sep 2002

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 268 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Sep 2002

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  24/2100Z
to 25/2100Z:  Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours, with
occasional, low-level C-class flares. Region 119 (S15W88) rotated
off the disk today. The largest region on the disk is 132 (N19W41)
which is a compact group of 400 millionths area with a beta-delta
magnetic configuration. Region 132 was mostly unchanged during the
past 24 hours. Region 130 (N06E10) showed growth but was otherwise
stable. Region 134 (N10E64) grew during the past 24 hours and
produced numerous subflares.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
during the next three days. There is a slight chance for an isolated
M-class event from regions 132, 127, or 130.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet during the past 24 hours.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet for the next three days.

III.  Event Probabilities 26 Sep-28 Sep
Class M    30/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Sep 153
Predicted   26 Sep-28 Sep  150/150/145
90 Day Mean        25 Sep 179

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Sep  003/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Sep  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Sep-28 Sep  005/007-005/007-005/007

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Sep-28 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05