Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 6 Sep 2002
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 249 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Sep 2002 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity was low. A few C-class flares occurred, most without corresponding optical reports. Regions 95 (N08W31) and 96 (S16W15) remain the largest sunspot groups on the visible disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Regions 95 and 96 could each produce low-level M-class activity. Old active Region 69 (S08, L=299) is expected to return at the east limb within the three-day forecast period. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux has been slowly increasing over the past 20 hours, apparently due to a backside event over the northwest limb. Current proton flux is about 9 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next 24 hours or so. Unsettled to active conditions are possible on 8-9 September in response to yesterday's long-duration C5 flare and eruptive filament. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux could cross the 10 pfu event threshold within the next few hours but a large peak event flux is not expected. III. Event Probabilities 07 Sep-09 Sep Class M 40/50/50 Class X 01/05/05 Proton 10/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 06 Sep 178 Predicted 07 Sep-09 Sep 185/190/200 90 Day Mean 06 Sep 170 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 05 Sep 008/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Sep 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Sep-09 Sep 008/010-012/015-010/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Sep-09 Sep A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/25/25 Minor storm 10/15/15 Major-severe storm 01/05/05 B. High Latitudes Active 30/35/35 Minor storm 15/20/20 Major-severe storm 05/05/05
