Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 5 Sep 2002

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 248 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Sep 2002

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Several C-class subflares
occurred, mostly in Regions 95 (N08W17) and 96 (S16W02). An
interesting eruptive filament near Region 102 (N08E26) was
associated with a C5 x-ray flare at 05/1706 UTC and a type II radio
sweep.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. M-class activity is possible in Regions 95 and 96. A
general increase in activity levels is expected towards the end of
the three-day forecast period with the return of old Region 69 (S08,
L=299) which departed the disk as an active Ekc sunspot group.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.

III.  Event Probabilities 06 Sep-08 Sep
Class M    30/40/50
Class X    01/01/05
Proton     01/01/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Sep 175
Predicted   06 Sep-08 Sep  180/190/200
90 Day Mean        05 Sep 170

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Sep  023/042
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Sep  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Sep-08 Sep  008/010-008/010-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Sep-08 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05