Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 29 Aug 2002

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 241 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Aug 2002

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  28/2100Z

to 29/2100Z:  Solar activity was at moderate levels.  After further

review of a more comprehensive database set, it appears that the M4

flare that occurred yesterday (no region has been assigned to flare)

at 28/1859 UTC could have originated from several different source

regions.  The most probable source region appears to be from the

northeast limb which corresponds to Region 95 (N07E76), which

rotated onto the visible disk and became a newly numbered region

today.  Region 95 did produce the largest flare today, an impulsive

M3/Sf flare occurring at 29/1252 UTC with an associated 720 pfu

Tenflare.  Proximity to limb hinders any meaningful analysis of this

region at this time as the most recent white-light images indicate

the trailing cluster of spots have yet fully rotated into view.

Three other optically uncorrelated low level M-class flares occurred

today along with multiple C-class flares.  Region 87 (S08W20) showed

steady decay over the period although it retains a weak delta

magnetic structure in the southeast portion of the spot complex.

Despite the region’s magnetic structure it only managed to produce

minor activity today.  The remaining active regions were of little

note.  Regions 93 (S16E13) and 94 (S17E67) were also assigned today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at

moderate levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to be quiet to unsettled throughout the period.
III.  Event Probabilities 30 Aug-01 Sep

Class M    60/60/60

Class X    05/05/05

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           29 Aug 169

Predicted   30 Aug-01 Sep  170/165/155

90 Day Mean        29 Aug 169
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 28 Aug  007/010

Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Aug  008/010

Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Aug-01 Sep  008/010-008/008-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Aug-01 Sep

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                15/15/15

Minor storm           05/05/05

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                25/20/20

Minor storm           10/10/10

Major-severe storm    01/01/01