AIP FYI#26 Outlook on FY 2003 Budget Bills

Six months from today, thirteen FY 2003 appropriations bills
should have been enacted. This deadline is rarely met, and a
number of factors make it less probable that Congress will
complete it work on time this year.

There are several major forces affecting this year’s budget
cycle. An obvious uncertainty is the pace and scope of future
military operations. The state of the economy is also a key
factor since it affects the amount of federal tax revenue.
Finally, this is an election year, with the seats for all
representatives and one-third of all senators at stake. Every
action that Congress and the Administration takes will be
scrutinized for its impact on the control of the Senate and
House.

While there will be much talk about reducing the FY 2003
projected budget deficit, it seems almost certain that
Congress will pass, and the President will sign,
appropriations bills pushing the government back into deficit
spending. The budget caps that provided some restraint in
previous years have expired. The betting is that the
Republican-controlled House and the Democratic-controlled
Senate will not settle on a final budget resolution this
spring. Without this resolution’s taxing and spending
parameters, the appropriators will have few constraints on the
bills they write. Making this situation even more uncertain
are politically infeasible recommendations in the budget
request, such as a 7% reduction in Army Corps of Engineers
spending, a 30% reduction in highway money, a 9% cut in Navy
shipbuilding funding, and changes in veterans’ health benefits
reimbursement. Relations between Congress and the
Administration have been strained by earmarking, with each
side angrily claiming the high ground. Finally, while Members
of Congress generally concur with the President on war-related
matters, members of both parties disagree with the
Administration’s approach to other defense policies and
expenses.

Looking ahead, it is clear that Congress will continue to be
supportive of S&T. Larger questions, such as those described
above, will impact FY 2003 research funding outcomes.
Congress is almost certain to provide NSF with more than the
requested 5.0% increase, although the VA budget ramifications
are going to be troublesome. The outcome for NASA is
difficult to predict as much will depend on what will be done
about space station overruns. Requested increases for DOE
physics-related programs range from1.7% to 6.5%. The DOE
appropriations bill also contains funding for popular Army
Corps programs so the outcome cannot be predicted. Congress
was very supportive of defense S&T last year, boosting it by
11.0%, so it is highly unlikely that Members will agree to the
2.0% cut sought by the Administration. The 5.1% requested cut
in USGS is going to be a hard sell on Capitol Hill, and there
is no way that the budget for the Advanced Technology Program
will be cut by 41.5%, as the Administration has requested.

These are highly uncertain times, and these outcomes could
change. The coming months will be contentious. Budgetary
outcomes will depend on the involvement of constituents in
the process of determining the federal government’s priorities
in the next fiscal year, which begins six months from today.

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Richard M. Jones

Media and Government Relations Division

The American Institute of Physics

fyi@aip.org

(301) 209-3095

http://www.aip.org/gov

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