NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 17 Nov 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Nov 17 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 321 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Nov 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate. Region 9704 (S18E28)
produced a long-duration M2/1n flare at 17/0525 UTC. This flare was
accompanied by Type II/IV radio sweep events. Region 9697 (N13W06)
also flared today, the largest being a C3/1f at 16/2146 UTC. Region
9690 (S18W80) is exiting the visible disk without incident.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9704 is the most likely source of M-class
activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. A single period of active
conditions occurred at many locations from 17/1200-1500 UTC.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 18 Nov-20 Nov
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Nov 199
Predicted   18 Nov-20 Nov  195/190/185
90 Day Mean        17 Nov 217
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Nov  004/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Nov  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Nov-20 Nov  008/010-008/010-008/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Nov-20 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01