NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 11 Nov 2001
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity :Issued: 2001 Nov 11 2200 UT # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 315 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Nov 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate, due to a single M-class event during the period. Region 9690 (S18W09) produced an M1/Sf flare at 11/1103 UTC. Region 9690 remains a relatively large sunspot group with a complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. This region remained active through out the period, producing numerous C-class flares and nearly continuous optical flaring. Spotless Region 9686 (N15W78) produced a C5/Sf flare at 11/0035 UTC. Region 9697 (N11E76) was numbered today. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at mostly moderate levels with the chance of an isolated major flare from Region 9690. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was a mostly quiet levels with isolated unsettled conditions. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to continue to be at quiet to unsettled conditions. There will be a slight chance for a proton flare during the forecast period. III. Event Probabilities 12 Nov-14 Nov Class M 90/90/90 Class X 30/30/30 Proton 20/20/20 PCAF yellow IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 11 Nov 234 Predicted 12 Nov-14 Nov 235/235/230 90 Day Mean 11 Nov 213 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 10 Nov 005/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Nov 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Nov-14 Nov 008/008-008/008-008/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Nov-14 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01
