NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 6 Nov 2001
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity :Issued: 2001 Nov 06 2200 UT # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 310 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Nov 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity was at moderate levels. Four M-class events were reported during the period. Region 9687 (S20E08) produced the largest event, an M2/1b flare at 06/0300 UTC. This event also had an accompanying Type II radio sweep (velocity estimated at 600 km/s). Region 9687 developed into a complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic classification during the period. Region 9690 was by far, the most active region on the disk today. It produced several C-class events and two minor M-class events. Region 9690 has fully rotated onto the disk and appears to be a moderately large region (750 millionths) with a beta-gamma magnetic classification. Region 9684 (N06W55), which produced the X1/3b proton flare on 04 November, retains a beta-gamma-delta magnetic classification, but did not produce any significant activity during the period. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue to be moderate to high. Regions 9684, 9687, and 9690 all possess major flare potential. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to severe storm conditions. The full-halo coronal mass ejection (CME) from the 04 November event impacted the geomagnetic field at 06/0150 UTC. This was indicated by a 90 nT sudden impulse as measured by the USGS Boulder magnetometer. Severe geomagnetic storming occurred between 06/0000 and 06/0600 UTC and 15-1800 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton event peaked at 31,700 pfu at 06/0215 UTC. The greater than 100 MeV proton event peaked at 253 pfu at 06/0220 UTC. Both proton events levels declined sharply during the period but continued through the end of the day. A polar cap absorption event remained in effect. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to minor storm conditions on the first day of the period and then declining to mostly quiet to unsettled, with isolated active conditions possible, on days two and three. However, there have been several long and near long duration flares in the last two days that could have produced earth-directed coronal mass ejections. Since the onset of the proton storm at approximately 1700 UTC on 04 November, the LASCO instrument has been saturated by the particles and it is nearly impossible to determine if any CME's have been produced or if they are earth-directed. Impacts from any earth-directed CME's would obviously cause an increase in geomagnetic activity. The greater than 100 MeV proton event is expected to continue until approximately 07/1200 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton event ended the day at 567 pfu and is expected to continue for at least another 24 hours. The Polar cap absorption event is expected to last until 09/0000 UTC. III. Event Probabilities 07 Nov-09 Nov Class M 80/80/80 Class X 25/25/25 Proton 99/99/80 PCAF in progress IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 06 Nov 237 Predicted 07 Nov-09 Nov 235/235/230 90 Day Mean 06 Nov 208 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 05 Nov 012/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Nov 075/100 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Nov-09 Nov 030/030-012/015-010/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Nov-09 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 50/35/35 Minor storm 25/15/15 Major-severe storm 04/04/04 B. High Latitudes Active 40/30/25 Minor storm 35/15/15 Major-severe storm 20/10/05
