NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 3 Nov 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Nov 03 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 307 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Nov 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z:  Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours due to
numerous C-class flares. Regions 9687 (S19E49) and 9682 (N12W50)
combined to produce a C5 event at 0741 UTC. An additional C5/Sf was
produced by 9682 at 0935 UTC. Region 9682 was quieter today than
yesterday and appears to have decreased slightly in area. Region
9687 also was quieter today. Preliminary analysis of 9687 indicates
at least a beta-gamma magnetic class, and there may possibly be a
weak delta sunspot in the group. Region 9684 (N05W15) showed some
spot rotation and some development of the leader spot. A partial
halo CME, reported by LASCO, entered the C2 field of view at 01/2230
UTC and was apparently associated with yesterday's M1 event out of
Region 9682.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate during the next three days. There is a slight chance for
a major flare or a proton producing flare. Regions 9682, 9684, and
9687 continue to be the major groups to watch for energetic flare
activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled during the next 24-36 hours. An
increase to unsettled to slightly active levels is forecast for the
second and third days in response to the partial halo CME event that
occurred late on 1 November.
III.  Event Probabilities 04 Nov-06 Nov
Class M    70/70/70
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     20/20/20
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Nov 216
Predicted   04 Nov-06 Nov  215/210/215
90 Day Mean        03 Nov 206
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Nov  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Nov  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Nov-06 Nov  005/008-015/015-015/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Nov-06 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/35/35
Minor storm           10/20/20
Major-severe storm    05/10/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/40/40
Minor storm           10/25/25
Major-severe storm    05/10/10