NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 16 Oct 2001
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Oct 16 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 289 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Oct 2001
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 9661 (N16E04)
produced several C-class flares, the largest being a C6/Sf at
16/1926 UTC. This region has continued to grow in areal coverage
and spot count, and also has exhibited greater magnetic complexity
over the last 24 hours. Other minor C-class flares also occurred
throughout the period. A filament centered near S35W34 disappeared
at about 15/2100 UTC, however no associated CME activity was
apparent in available SOHO/LASCO imagery. New Region 9670 (S16E67)
was numbered today, indicating the expected return of old Region
9628/9632 complex. Limb proximity prevents full analysis of the new
region's characteristics.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 9661 continues to show the potential
to produce an isolated major flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days, barring
the occurrence of an earth directed CME.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Oct 207
Predicted 17 Oct-19 Oct 215/215/220
90 Day Mean 16 Oct 186
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Oct 009/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Oct 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Oct-19 Oct 008/008-008/012-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/30/25
Minor storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/05