NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 17 Sep 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Sep 17 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 260 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Sep 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z:  Solar activity was high.  Region 9616 (S12E03) produced
an M1/2n impulsive flare at 17/0825 UTC accompanied by a Type II
radio sweep (764 km/s) and a 460 sfu Tenflare.  LASCO/EIT observed a
partial halo CME associated with this event.  Region 9608 (S30W75)
produced an M8/1n at 17/1550 UTC with an associated 380 sfu
Tenflare.  New Region's 9622 (N12E34), 9623 (N21E46), and 9624
(N03E70) were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high with Region's 9608 and 9616 still proving to have
potential to produce a major flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.  Active conditions are possible
for the next three days as a result of the CME activity over the
past few days and a recurrent high speed stream in the solar wind.
III.  Event Probabilities 18 Sep-20 Sep
Class M    80/80/80
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Sep 199
Predicted   18 Sep-20 Sep  195/195/200
90 Day Mean        17 Sep 165
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Sep  007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Sep  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Sep-20 Sep  015/018-015/015-015/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Sep-20 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05