NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 6 Sep 2001
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity :Issued: 2001 Sep 06 2200 UT # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 249 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Sep 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. An M2/Sf flare occurred in Region 9608 (S26E56) at 05/2233 UTC. The next largest flare of the past day was a C8 at 06/0346 UTC. Although no optical flare reports were received, observations from the SOHO spacecraft suggest that Region 9601 (N11W51) was the source. Regions 9605 (S18E12), 9607 (S15E42), and new Region 9610 (S10E71) also produced C-class subflares. Regions 9601 and 9608 remain the largest and most magnetically complex sunspot groups. New Region 9609 (S07W53) was also numbered. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Additional M-class flares are likely with Regions 9601 and 9608 the most probable producers. A chance of an isolated major flare in these areas also exists. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. III. Event Probabilities 07 Sep-09 Sep Class M 75/75/75 Class X 15/15/15 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 06 Sep 222 Predicted 07 Sep-09 Sep 225/230/230 90 Day Mean 06 Sep 159 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 05 Sep 006/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Sep 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Sep-09 Sep 008/010-008/010-008/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Sep-09 Sep A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01
