NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 5 Sep 2001
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Sep 05 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 248 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Sep 2001
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z: Solar activity was high. Region 9601 (N13W38) produced
an M6/2b flare at 05/1432Z. Moderate centimetric radio bursts
including a 770 sfu Tenflare accompanied this event. This region
was also responsible for an M3/1n flare at 04/2159Z. Region 9606
(S17E32) produced an M1/1n at 05/1913Z. New Region 9608 (S24E70) was
numbered today. Limb proximity hinders a detailed analysis of this
region, but space based imagery indicates significant complexity
exists.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue
at moderate to high levels. Regions 9601 and 9608 will likely
produce C and M class flares. An isolated major flare is possible
from either region.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Sep-08 Sep
Class M 75/75/75
Class X 15/15/15
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF yellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Sep 218
Predicted 06 Sep-08 Sep 215/215/215
90 Day Mean 05 Sep 159
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Sep 011/020
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Sep 010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Sep-08 Sep 010/010-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Sep-08 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01