NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2 Sep 2001
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Sep 02 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 245 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Sep 2001
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been moderate. Regions 9591
(S18W65) and 9601 (N14E08 produced three M-class events between
them. The largest was an M3/2n at 02/1348 UTC from Region 9591.
Both of these regions have decayed slightly since yesterday, but
Region 9591 continues to retain a beta-gamma-delta magnetic
configuration. New Region 9603 (S08E64) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high with Region 9591 and 9601 capable of producing a
major flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet to unsettled. Isolated active
conditions are possible for September 03 and 04.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Sep-05 Sep
Class M 80/80/80
Class X 25/25/25
Proton 25/25/25
PCAF yellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Sep 183
Predicted 03 Sep-05 Sep 180/175/170
90 Day Mean 02 Sep 157
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Sep 004/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Sep 008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Sep-05 Sep 015/015-012/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Sep-05 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/25/25
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/30/25
Minor storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/01