NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 15 Aug 2001
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity :Issued: 2001 Aug 15 2200 UT # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 227 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Aug 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. The largest event of the period was an optically uncorrelated C3 flare at 15/0243 UTC. Region 9574 (S04W66) produced a C1/Sf at 15/1242 UTC. This region remains the largest on the visible disk, but has decayed somewhat in spot count, areal coverage, and magnetic complexity since yesterday. Most of the other numbered regions on the disk have also similarly decayed or remained little changed, and quiet. Exceptions are formerly spotless Region 9577 (N13W61), which had new spots emerge today, and two newly numbered regions: 9581 (S28W09) and 9582 (N32E73). IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be predominantly low for the next three days. A small chance for isolated moderate flare activity still exists for Region 9574 and the newly emerged regions noted in Section 1A above. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been mainly quiet, with isolated unsettled periods. Greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached moderate enhancement levels today. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the first day of the forecast period. Thereafter, an onset of magnetic storming is anticipated from the CME activity of 14 August, with active to minor storm conditions and isolated major storm periods possible at higher latitudes. Conditions are expected to return to predominantly unsettled levels by day three. Moderate to high flux levels for greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit are also possible throughout the period. III. Event Probabilities 16 Aug-18 Aug Class M 25/25/25 Class X 05/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 15 Aug 147 Predicted 16 Aug-18 Aug 145/140/140 90 Day Mean 15 Aug 151 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 14 Aug 010/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Aug 007/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Aug-18 Aug 015/015-025/025-017/017 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Aug-18 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/35/30 Minor storm 15/20/15 Major-severe storm 05/10/05 B. High Latitudes Active 30/40/30 Minor storm 15/25/15 Major-severe storm 05/05/05
