NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 27 Jul 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Jul 27 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 208 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jul 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  26/2100Z
to 27/2100Z:  Solar activity increased to low levels. Region 9543
(S25W82) produced an isolated C-class subflare. This region remained
moderate-sized with a slight degree of magnetic complexity as it
began to cross the west limb. The remaining regions were
unremarkable. New Region 9559 (S25E14) was numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels late in the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to decrease to
normal to moderate levels early in the period.
III.  Event Probabilities 28 Jul-30 Jul
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Jul 121
Predicted   28 Jul-30 Jul  120/120/120
90 Day Mean        27 Jul 153
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jul  011/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jul  008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jul-30 Jul  008/008-008/008-012/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jul-30 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/30
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01