Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 286 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Oct 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 13/1609Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 Oct, 15 Oct, 16 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 510 km/s at 13/1710Z. Total IMF reached 24 nT at 13/0829Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 13/1442Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 189 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (14 Oct, 15 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (16 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Oct 149
Predicted 14 Oct-16 Oct 150/150/145
90 Day Mean 13 Oct 159

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Oct 003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Oct 011/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Oct-16 Oct 008/010-008/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/20/10
Minor Storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 40/30/15

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