Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 279 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Oct 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 06/1817Z. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 06/1817Z. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Oct, 08 Oct, 09 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 497 km/s at 05/2235Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 06/0146Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 06/0226Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 439 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (07 Oct), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (08 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (09 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 07 Oct-09 Oct
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Oct 155
Predicted 07 Oct-09 Oct 156/156/158
90 Day Mean 06 Oct 161
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Oct 011/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Oct 010/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Oct-09 Oct 016/018-009/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Oct-09 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/20/10
Minor Storm 20/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 50/35/15
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