Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 278 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Oct 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 05/1913Z from Region 3451 (N17W07). There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (06 Oct, 07 Oct, 08 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 473 km/s at 05/1350Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 04/2118Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 05/0102Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 368 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (06 Oct), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (07 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (08 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 06 Oct-08 Oct
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Oct 156
Predicted 06 Oct-08 Oct 158/158/155
90 Day Mean 05 Oct 161
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Oct 008/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Oct 013/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Oct-08 Oct 015/018-020/025-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Oct-08 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/35/20
Minor Storm 25/25/05
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 30/25/25
Major-severe storm 55/65/35
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